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Sprint, Clearwire: WiMAX Will be the Third Broadband Pipe
11 Jun, 2008
A stated desire of regulators is to foster competition for broadband. They claim that many of their policies are created to achieve such a desired outcome. Sprint and Clearwire are exploiting this desire with regulators with their most recent regulatory filing. They are positioning WiMAX as the desired “third pipe” into the home - a broadband pipe that will compete with the other two dominant broadband pipes, DSL and cable modem. While still a concept, a wireless third pipe into the home is building momentum.
Whether it’s Sprint/Clearwire with WiMAX or Verizon/AT&T with LTE, wireless broadband technology is evolving quickly. Its ability to rival wireline broadband service is approaching – and quickly. I’ve heard the argument that wireless broadband will never really rival wireline broadband services, especially with FTTH gaining momentum. That’s certainly true. But I wonder if it misses the point. Wireless broadband won’t rival FTTH speeds, but it doesn’t have to. All it has to do is provide “enough.” When it does provide “enough,” a fair number of customers will see the same compelling convenience with wireless broadband that they saw with wireless voice. Those customers will cut the wireline broadband cord, in much the same way they cut the wireline voice cord. Will it be everyone? No. But will it be enough to create serious competitive implications. Absolutely.
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07 Aug, 2008Second quarter results for broadband growth were a tad underwhelming. There are any number of factors which probably contributed to this slowdown, with the economic slowdown and housing crisis certainly towards the top of the list. But growth is also slowing because broadband penetration has grown considerably over the past few years, now ranging somewhere between 50% to 60% (depending on who you ask), and is beginning to slow down. There certainly is more room for growth, but at some point in the near future, broadband penetration will slow even more as it approaches saturation. It’s anyone’s guess what saturation is, but I would bet somewhere around 75% penetration of households (as a national average - individual markets will vary widely). From a service provider’s point of view, that suggests that posting continuing net adds of broadband customers will increasingly involve convincing a competitor's broadband customer base to switch service.

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