Second quarter results for broadband growth were a tad underwhelming. There are any number of factors which probably contributed to this slowdown, with the economic slowdown and housing crisis certainly towards the top of the list. But growth is also slowing because broadband penetration has grown considerably over the past few years, now ranging somewhere between 50% to 60% (depending on who you ask), and is beginning to slow down. There certainly is more room for growth, but at some point in the near future, broadband penetration will slow even more as it approaches saturation. It’s anyone’s guess what saturation is, but I would bet somewhere around 75% penetration of households (as a national average - individual markets will vary widely). From a service provider’s point of view, that suggests that posting continuing net adds of broadband customers will increasingly involve convincing a competitor's broadband customer base to switch service.

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RCN is looking to wideband to keep up with its competitors, which include Comcast, Time Warner, and Verizon. RCN is a scrappy overbuilder, and is often the third triple play option in many Northeast markets including Boston, Philadelphia, and New York. Its competitors have announced the move to DOCSIS 3.0, or in Verizon’s case, utilize FTTH. Speaking from a bandwidth perspective, RCN CEO Peter Aquino is quoted in a Light Reading article as saying, “We'll go as high as anyone else." RCN's move to wideband is being facilitated by reclamation of analog spectrum, as they shift to an all digital cable platform. That reclamation will take some time and RCN says that DOCSIS 3.0 and the 50 Mbps speeds it will bring won’t happen until late 2009. Given that Comcast, Time Warner, and Verizon are moving considerably faster to that bogey, will RCN’s plan be too little, too late? Or is the broadband escalation strategy being pursued by all of these players overkill?

Verizon used the NXTComm conference to announce the expansion of their 50 Mbps broadband service for their entire FiOS footprint. Verizon says the ultra fast broadband service, which also includes a 20 Mbps upload speed, will be available to 10 million homes. The increases in speed also include 20/20, 20/5, and 10/2 Mbps FiOS plans as well. "The Verizon network is delivering broadband speeds that are unmatched by any competitor," Verizon COO Denny Strigl said during an address at NXTComm. Verizon had offered these speeds in limited markets previously. Strigl added, “We've already had successful trials of the 100-megabit home, which will be a reality faster than anybody thinks." FiOS Internet 50/20 Mbps service is available in New York and Virginia for $89.95 and elsewhere for $139.95 a month with an annual service plan. The 20/20 Mbps FiOS Internet service is available in all FiOS markets for $64.99 a month with an annual service plan.

Verizon is gaining the “king of broadband speeds” moniker for these upgrades. But for how long? Their cable competitors, namely Comcast, have committed to DOCSIS 3.0 deployments that will offer comparable broadband speeds. All of these ultra fast broadband plans are more for public relations battles than significant broadband market share gains – at least for the time being. The pricing associated with these service plans are out of reach for most consumers. For now these moves grab the attention and imagination of the industry, but will do little in terms of impact on earnings and market share. In time that will change. Perhaps, it ‘s a leading indicator of the future where 20 Mbps+ speeds become the norm for residential broadband.

Comcast is launching its first DOCSIS 3.0, or “wideband” market this week in Minneapolis/St. Paul. The new broadband service will offer 50 Mbps download and 5 Mbps upload speeds for $150/month with a $3/month cable modem rental fee. DOCSIS 3.0 has the capability to go to 100 Mbps and beyond, but Comcast believes that much speed is unnecessary for right now. Comcast is also increasing its broadband speeds for its “legacy” broadband tiers in Minneapolis, meaning the arrival of DOCSIS 3.0 to any given market may give its entire broadband customer base a boost. Comcast intends to extend DOCSIS 3.0 to 20% of its footprint by the end of the year.

This development is sure to intensify the broadband wars. I can just envision the Verizon FiOS marketing machine now, dreaming up counter claims to the new Comcast wideband service. I suspect they will try to leverage higher upload speeds as a differentiator. There will also be some pricing battles for these ultra high speed packages. Comcast probably picked a non-FiOS market like Minneapolis to perfect their “craft” before going head up with Verizon. They’ll want to gain some experience in a more competitive friendly town before going to battle. Stay tuned.

Apparently FTTH is not enough. Verizon wants FTTH on steroids. Hence their announcement today that they are moving to a GPON architecture for future FiOS build outs. All jokes aside, the move is a prudent one. If you’re going to spend billions on a FTTH network, why not utilize the best technology available. GPON expands the capabilities of their previous FiOS technology, BPON, by about fourfold. With GPON, 100 Mbps to the home is achievable. Of course don’t look for it any time soon. Verizon says the typical GPON customer won’t be able to tell the difference from a typical BPON served customer. At least not yet.

Verizon’s strategy is clear. They want to have the biggest, baddest network around. One that won’t be scared by a competing Comcast DOCSIS 3.0 network. Which by the way, Comcast announced today at CES they will begin to roll out in 2008. The ongoing head-to-head battle will only intensify.

Who needs FTTH when DOCSIS 3.0 can deliver 100 Mbps. Maybe those discussions are going on internally to Comcast, who announced they are pulling the trigger on 3.0 in 20% of their markets by the end of 2008. Light Reading’s Cable Digital News is reporting that Comcast’s chief technology officer Tony Werner revealed these DOCSIS 3.0 plans at the CableNEXT conference. DOCSIS 3.0 uses channel bonding to significantly increase bandwidth rates. It also leverages a variety of technologies to broaden the content experience for subscribers. For example, Comcast intends to use 3.0 to blend traditional multi-channel video content with Internet video content through a 3.0 enabled residential gateway. The end result will be a broader content and entertainment experience for customers and “FTTH like” broadband speeds, both of which, may contribute in bringing competitive parity with FTTH competitors.

If you ask iSuppli, an El Segundo, CA based market research firm, telecom FTTH deployments like Verizon FiOS are a serious threat to cable MSOs. In a recently released research report, Steve Rago, principal analyst for networking and optical communications with iSuppli Corp. says “FTTH poses a real threat to the MSOs, potentially rendering today’s cable television infrastructure obsolete.” iSuppli sees HDTV as the bandwidth difference maker, with the demand for multiple HD feeds crippling all providers who do not have a FTTH infrastructure. IPTV proponents will argue that switched digital video architectures will provide the solution for handling HDTV. Cable providers are eyeing SDV with great interest as well.

Before funerals start getting arranged for Comcast, Cox, and others, we should put this postulation into perspective. While FTTH clearly offers competitive advantage, it will take years, maybe decades, before the number of FTTH homes passed rivals’ cable HFC networks. That’s a considerable amount of time for cable companies to prepare for their ‘demise.’ During that time, these same companies aren’t exactly going to be sitting around as telcos advance on and surpass them. For example, we reported on July 3rd about Comcast’s plans to deploy a 100 Mbps service, utilizing DOCSIS 3.0. Certainly a 100 Mbps service should provide enough of a competitive response to FTTH. Or will it? The determining factor in this argument will be decided by consumers and their corresponding demand for broadband. Will 100 Mbps be enough?

Comcast CTO Tony Werner discussed their DOCSIS 3.0 plans with Multichannel News, and commented that it will be a natural evolution of cable modem technology. Werner didn’t offer any specific launch timelines, but did say the so called ‘wideband’ technology is very close to trials at Comcast. DOCSIS 3.0 is the next generation of cable modem which allows the bonding of 6 Mhz channels to create a single virtual broadband pipe of 100 Mbps or more. DOCSIS 3.0 is backwards compatible with earlier DOCSIS versions and also is IPv6 compliant.

Cable technology like DOCSIS 3.0 is raising the competitive bar and allowing cable MSOs to leverage their HFC architecture to compete with FTTH technologies like Verizon FiOS. DSL competitors who do not have very short loop lengths (2,500 feet or less) will find it next to impossible to match the type of broadband experience that DOCSIS 3.0 will provide.

Light Reading is reporting that CableLabs is developing an OpenCable initiative which utilizes DOCSIS 3.0 to empower IP applications to cable set top boxes. The main advantage that DOCSIS 3.0 brings is the ability to bond RF channels, which results in a robust bandwidth pipe that can support a variety of IP applications, including IP multicast and unicast.

The move to IPTV by cable MSOs is inevitable. Bandwidth intensive applications including HD and VOD will dictate it. Current and near term future IPTV operators must realize that the competitive advantage offered by deploying IPTV today is a closing window of opportunity. One that must be seized and leveraged as quickly as possible.

The arrival of DOCSIS 3.0 is accelerating the possibilities of Cablecos implementing IPTV. IPTV over DOCSIS 3.0 was demonstrated recently at a CableLabs event. Cablecos are interested in IPTV because its switched digital video nature relieves bandwidth constraints on their HFC networks. But at the same time, Cablecos aren’t all that interested in switching out set top boxes, which could be cost prohibitive. Vendors were demonstrating alternative approaches that may help alleviate the set top challenge. IPTV provides telcos certain advantages – advantages they intend to leverage to competitive advantage. But with the arrival of DOCSIS 3.0, maybe not for long.

Check out this detailed analysis from ScreenPlays.