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MetroPCS: Come One, Come All CDMA
26 Jun, 2008MetroPCS has opened their network, allowing new customers to bring their own compatible CDMA device. MetroFlash, as it’s branded, removes the requirement of a new handset purchase for new MetroPCS customers. It follows a trend of “openness” now being experimented within the wireless industry. Both Verizon Wireless and AT&T have made similar claims for openness. It’s open for debate as to how all of these carriers actually define open. Some would argue these claims are more of a marketing ploy than a true open strategy. Google has had significant influence on the openness issue, both through their Android initiative, and through their lobbying efforts surrounding the recent 700 MHz auction. As the mobile web experience matures, openness will become more paramount. Consumers will want to connect to the mobile web, regardless of the device they happen to be using at any given time. These initial open initiatives are probably a leading indicator of the future of wireless. Wireless carriers will need a well defined "open" strategy to remain competitive in the wireless web world. It’s not going to happen overnight, but the genie may be working her way towards the bottle opening on this one.
Chink in Android’s Armor
23 Jun, 2008Google’s mobile operating system has been delayed. Android’s much anticipated launch, originally scheduled for a midyear, has been delayed until the fourth quarter. Realistically, we won’t be seeing Android until 2009. It’s a somewhat more costly delay than normal for Google. Development projects of this scale always have delays, but Google’s competitors are seizing on the Android void. Apple’s 3G iPhone will now have a sizeable lead in the marketplace and RIM’s BlackBerry will as well. According to the Wall Street Journal, the delays are being caused by customization and translation challenges from carriers like Sprint and China Mobile. The Wall Street Journal even speculates that Sprint may forgo a 3G version of Android, and wait until a 4G WiMAX version is ready. Whatever the cause, we’ll have to wait to see what the competitive impact of Android and its burgeoning ecosystem will be.
Google: Verizon Isn’t Going to Open Up Enough
06 May, 2008
Google has petitioned the FCC regarding Verizon’s win of the 700 Mhz C block spectrum. Google pushed hard for, and won, an “open” mandate for the winner of the 700 Mhz C block. The mandate basically says that the winner of the spectrum must provide open access and allow devices from any source to access the broadband wireless network utilizing that spectrum. Google sees this open access mandate as a gateway for its upcoming wireless Android platform, which will potentially drive millions of users towards their products and solutions. Google believes those same potential users may not be able to easily reach and use Google’s wireless focused products without that open access provision. The competitive implications are numerous because most wireless Internet access is now controlled by wireless carriers through restrictions and “walled garden” approaches. Opening it up, would allow competitors to build relationships with wireless subscribers and perhaps create the “dumb pipe” scenario for wireless broadband, where wireless carriers simply provide a pipe to the Internet, and don’t create any additional value/revenue for them. It’s the same issue currently being debated by wireline broadband carriers – should I just provide the pipe, or should I try to build more value around that access for which I can create incremental revenue.
Of course we know that Verizon and other communications conglomerates are quite crafty. According to Google, Verizon interprets the open access rules a little differently, and don’t intend on providing open access on its own handsets. Google also contends that the open access provision, while being offered through non-Verizon handsets, will be offered at presumably much higher access costs to the consumer, thus discouraging its use. Google is asking the FCC to deny Verizon’s winning bid for the C-block spectrum, which Verizon won for $4.7 billion, unless they take a more broad approach to the open access mandate. This will be one to watch, because its outcome will have profound implications on the wireless competitive landscape.
Read more insight on this issue at the IP Democracy blog.
Yahoo Looking to AOL to Fend Off Microsoft
06 Mar, 2008The Wall Street Journal is reporting (subscription required) that Yahoo is courting Time Warner to combine AOL and Yahoo into a new company, with Time Warner holding a minority stake. The effort is an attempt to either stop Microsoft’s Yahoo bid, or at least force them to sweeten their offer. Whatever the outcome, it appears that Yahoo will enter into some transaction that will significantly alter the online search and advertising industry and will certainly impact the mobile wireless arena as well. Time Warner is reportedly putting the “finishing touches” on a proposal, which will soon be given to Yahoo’s board. In a separate note, Yahoo delayed the nomination process for its board to thwart a proxy fight with Microsoft. See the below video for more details.
The Wall Street Journal postulates that Microsoft is still likely to prevail, despite Yahoo’s efforts to court others, including AOL and News Corp. The implications on the Internet business are somewhat obvious. But a combined Microsoft and Yahoo would become a true wireless powerhouse as well. Both companies have well defined wireless strategies. Microsoft has Windows Mobile which will ship on over 20 million handsets this year. Yahoo has developed a suite of wireless applications that are featured on several wireless carriers including AT&T and T-Mobile. Both Yahoo and Microsoft have an interest in slowing Google’s wireless foray, Android. The next frontier for the Internet, search, and advertising is mobile wireless. Globally, mobile handsets will soon take over as the number one way that consumers access the Internet. Yahoo would be a prized asset for any company looking to effectively compete in this new frontier.
Microsoft-Yahoo Combination Could Create Wireless Juggernaut
04 Feb, 2008
Let the speculation begin. Microsoft’s unsolicited bid for Yahoo has the tech world abuzz. There are numerous implications if such a merger were to materialize. We’re far off from that happening - it will take some time to shake everything out. There are already rumors that Yahoo is exploring other options, including an alliance with Google to either thwart the Microsoft bid, or try to extract a bigger selling price. Perhaps one of the more interesting implications centers on wireless. Both Yahoo and Microsoft have impressive wireless strategies. Among the more obvious goals of this Microsoft bid, it may also be an attempt to head off Google advances into the coveted wireless space.
Yahoo and Microsoft have some pretty impressive wireless forays already. Microsoft’s mobile operating system, Windows Mobile, is on 150 handsets and is available from over 100 different wireless operators from across the globe. Windows Mobile will ship on about 20 million handsets this year alone. Yahoo has struck wireless alliances with the likes of AT&T, Vodaphone, T-Mobile, and Rogers to feature Yahoo mobile wireless applications, including ad and search capabilities. A combined Microsoft-Yahoo could create a compelling integrated suite of services for wireless operators and consumers that may trump anything Google tries to do with Android. Mobile wireless represents the next big growth engine for broadband. Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google understand that, and they are now positioning themselves to take full advantage of it.
Google Going Head First into Wireless
15 Jan, 2008Google’s wireless moves are aplenty recently. The announcements keep coming and the direction couldn’t be clearer. Google will be a major force in wireless, and they see it as their next real growth engine. Just in the past couple days, Google has made major announcements about deals with Clearwire and the Apple iPhone. They also made the cut to participate in the upcoming 700 Mhz auction. Clearwire will begin migrating its current customers to a variety of Google Apps, including Gmail, Google Calendar, and Google Talk. Google also announced an upgrade of its iPhone application suite. The suite, code named Grand Prix, provides a user friendly interface to Google services, including search, Gmail, Reader and Picasa. Google’s upgrade cycle for Grand Prix was unprecedented. The first iteration was released just six weeks ago. Google understands the importance of the iPhone. The New York Times reports that visits to Google from the iPhone outpaced all other mobile operating systems over the Christmas holiday, despite the fact that it only represents 2% of smartphones worldwide.
Google’s intention for the 700 Mhz auction are unclear. Some analysts believe they are there to just ensure the “open access” mandate for the C block spectrum is maintained. Google has said they will spend close to $5 billion for spectrum. Should they gain the spectrum, what will they do with it? Building their own wireless network seems far fetched. There has been speculation that they may team up with a foreign carrier, say NTT DoCoMo, to build the network. Perhaps they want to ensure there is a widescale network for their Android mobile operating system platform. Whatever the case, Google sees wireless as the next frontier for their business. More people will access the Internet by mobile devices in the future than do today via PCs. There will be billions of mobile ads to be served up and even more search queries. The moves we see today by Google are only precursors to their overall wireless strategy.
Verizon and Android: That Didn’t Take Long
04 Dec, 2007Verizon has announced they will join the Google led open handset alliance, also known as Android. Seems like good timing – coincides with their own openness initiative and their future 4G plans. Verizon hopes their new “openness” will lead to millions of additional consumers using their wireless network, all of whom will pay some type of toll, either directly to Verizon, or indirectly by accepting targeted advertising.
I equate this pending open wireless world with the video business model. In the not too distant future, consumers will be able to buy a device (think a television), connect it to a network, and pay to use it (think subscription video/cableTV) or utilize it for free, but accept targeted ads (think broadcast TV). Customers will consume content over this network, and oh yeah, occasionally make a call or two. The only question left is, how soon before AT&T joins the open party.
Google’s In
30 Nov, 2007It’s official – Google announced they are applying on Monday to participate in FCC auction 73 for coveted 700 Mhz spectrum. We’ve talked before about a world in which Google is a competitor in the telecom service provider realm. It’s enough to send shivers up the back of some existing service provider execs. Of course, just applying for participation in the auction doesn’t necessarily translate into providing service in the future. Google very well may change their mind, lose during the auction process, or get the spectrum and do little with it. It’s simply too early to predict what the long term prospects are for Google’s wireless aspirations. But it’s always fun to speculate.
I for one think Google has no intention of becoming a service provider themselves. Rather, I see them packaging up a solution set, which includes spectrum, the Android operating system, and of course a mobile search/advertising engine, and making it available to current and potential service providers. In effect, a wholesale Google powered wireless product, offered to whoever has the wherewithal to provide wireless service. I recognize there are some regulatory hurdles to such a scenario, unless Google pursues the D block spectrum, which has more favorable wholesale rules. Whatever strategy Google pursues, should they come to market with a viable wireless offering (wholesale or not), it certainly will have numerous competitive implications, many of which are impossible to see today.
Verizon Wireless Gets Out in Front With Open Access
27 Nov, 2007
Verizon Wireless announced today that they will be “opening up” their network to wireless devices, software, and applications not offered by the company. According to a company press release, “In early 2008, the company will publish the technical standards the development community will need to design products to interface with the Verizon Wireless network. Any device that meets the minimum technical standard will be activated on the network.” I’m sure many people will yawn at this development and think it doesn’t go far enough, but we should all recognize that it’s a pretty bold step for a traditional carrier like Verizon Wireless, who is notorious for wanting to control and limit network access. Is this a calculated move to address Google’s Android project?
You have to assume that Android played a role in this. This move by Verizon may not be totally a result of Android, but I’m sure it helped move it along internally. Verizon joins Sprint who made a similar pledge for their upcoming WiMAX network (assuming it gets built). Of course Google is leading the charge here and put their money where their mouth is by leading the Android movement. There is also speculative consensus that Google intends to be a major player in auction 73 for highly valuable 700 Mhz spectrum. If that is indeed true, Google may be setting itself up to create a compelling competitive ecosystem for established wireless players. It seems as if Verizon recognizes this possibility and hence is now a champion of open access. The promise of open access, where consumers can utilize devices on a wireless network that are sold independently of that wireless carrier, may further stimulate the already quite competitive wireless landscape. It may also fuel a new wave of innovation, including devices and applications well beyond traditional cellular phones, that may positively contribute to the bottom lines of all involved. With Verizon's announcement, they join Sprint and T-Mobile as publicly embracing some sort of open network initiative. Missing of course is AT&T - the current king of closed networks thanks to the iPhone. How long will they be able to maintain their closed access "lone ranger" status?
Microsoft’s Ballmer to Google: Bring it On!
08 Nov, 2007Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer had some interesting things to say about Google’s recent announcements concerning mobile handset operating systems. "Right now they have a press release, we have many, many millions of customers, great software, many hardware devices and they're welcome in our world,” said Ballmer. That’s corporate CEO speak for “bring it on.” Ballmer feels some confidence because Window’s Mobile has a significant lead. According to a Techworld post, Windows Mobile is on 150 handsets and is available from over 100 different operators. Ballmer added that Microsoft will likely license 20 million handsets this year.
With numbers like that, Google’s pending Android certainly doesn’t have Ballmer and Microsoft shaking in their boots. But you have to wonder what Microsoft is really saying behind closed doors. Google is crushing them on search and associated web advertising. If they have a fraction of comparable success with Android, the competitive impact will be significant on a variety of companies, Microsoft included.
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Clearwire Outlines 4G World Domination Plans
12 Jun, 2008Clearwire is feeling quite confident these days. The emerging WiMAX provider held an investor conference and outlined their plan for 4G domination. We're "building the communications company of the future, today," says Clearwire CEO Ben Wolf. Clearwire chief strategy officer Scott Richardson calls it "the second coming of the Internet." It was quite the WiMAX pep rally. Clearwire executives say they intend to build a seamless nationwide 4G network way ahead of their competitors, namely Verizon and AT&T.
From a powerpointware perspective, the strategy looks real impressive. Clearwire intends to offer a five product suite of services which will include residential voice and broadband, mobile voice and broadband, and mobile entertainment. They intend to leverage their investor partners considerably, gaining access to tens of millions of existing subscriber relationships immediately. With their cable company partners, they intend to extend the cable entertainment experience "into the palms of consumer's hands." They intend to utilize Google's Android platform for a suite of "compelling" mobile applications. Intel will contribute by powering millions of end user devices and do for WiMAX what it did for Wi-Fi, in effect bringing it to the mainstream. Wolf says that the average consumer's total household spend on communications, ranging from $109-$258, is up for grabs, and they intend to capture as much of it as possible.

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