Qwest CEO Ed Mueller acknowledged their current MVNO with Sprint isn’t an ideal option for them in these competitive times. Qwest has 824,000 wireless subscribers. Of the traditional RBOCs that are left, Qwest is the only one without a facilities based wireless network. Mueller recognizes that wireless is absolutely necessary for a company like Qwest to be competitive in the future, and their current wireless strategy with Sprint does not deliver the value they need. "I think we're very disadvantaged in the space," says Mueller in an interview with the Denver Post. Wireless is the largest growth engine for Verizon and AT&T and also delivers a clear differentiation over their competitors. Qwest is at a significant disadvantage by not having something similar.

As broadband wireless continues its ascension as an engine for ARPU expansion, companies without it will suffer. Both Verizon and AT&T noted in their most recent quarterly reports that wireless data service is the fastest growing contributor to revenue growth. Broadband wireless as an asset will be critical for telecom carriers to not only grow revenue, particularly as wireline voice revenues decrease, but also retain and attract subscribers. It will increasingly be seen as a key competitive advantage – one that cable companies will struggle to match. Qwest is wise to begin an active search for a partner that can deliver better terms and a better competitive value proposition. They will need it. Otherwise, they have very little to distinguish themselves from their cable competitors.

Recent announcements by Alltel about EV-DO launches in Montana and North Dakota illustrate the maturation of mobile broadband wireless beyond downtown urban clusters. Much of the attention around 3G deployments focuses on Sprint and Verizon Wireless’ EV-DO strategy of blanketing urban markets. But Alltel claims the largest EV-DO footprint (geographically speaking), and much of it is well beyond urban cores. Alltel’s latest announcement says they’re bringing mobile broadband to “Helena, Missoula, Billings and communities along Interstates 94 and 90” in Montana. That follows on the heels of similar moves by Alltel in North Dakota. Mobile broadband and the competition it empowers has arrived in rural America.

Rural America is no stranger to broadband wireless. But it’s typically been in the form of fixed wireless, where service providers have used Wi-Fi and other unlicensed spectrum options to expand the reach of their broadband footprints. Alltel, to some extent Verizon, and other smaller wireless players are now using EV-DO to provide more auspicious competitive broadband options to rural consumers, making it more enticing to “cut the chord” entirely. Wireless voice and now wireless broadband is within reach of millions of rural subscribers in much the same way that their urban counterparts have enjoyed it for some time. These mobile broadband solutions will broaden the competitive landscape for rural wireline providers and their DSL offerings. As mobile broadband continues to evolve through upcoming 4G technologies, its competitive implications will only broaden. Some rural service providers who historically have been somewhat shielded from wireless competitive pressures, may start to see the tides turn.

Cable companies seem to be content with sitting the upcoming 700 Mhz auction out. With the exception of Cox, most large MSOs have announced they have no plans to participate in this latest wireless spectrum auction. Perhaps they think the spectrum acquired at last year’s AWS spectrum auction gives them adequate wireless assets. Or maybe their Pivot experience has left a bad wireless taste in their mouth. Regardless, you have to wonder how/why cable MSOs have decided to pass on perhaps the best broadband wireless opportunity available to date.

Apparently, some heavyweight cable MSOs are not convinced that a wireless play is necessary to compete. Glenn Britt, CEO of Time Warner Cable was quoted at a recent UBS Securities Media & Entertainment conference as saying, “I don’t think the quad play is a big deal.” It remains to be seen whether Britt’s prediction is true. But I wonder whether he is missing the point. While it’s true that some customers may not place a ton of value on receiving mobile wireless, broadband, voice, and video from a single provider (at least not yet), the real point here is “broadband beyond the home.” As the technology matures, customers will see huge value in taking a true broadband experience with them when they leave the home. Broadband everywhere will soon be just as important as voice everywhere is today. The only way that’s accomplished is through a robust broadband wireless infrastructure. Service providers who are able to provide a broadband experience everywhere will have competitive advantage. All things being equal, it’s probably a safe bet to assume that a customer who is weighing options between two service providers may lean towards the one that can provide a broadband everywhere experience. I think Cox understands that, just as they understood the importance of offering voice service long before it was “en vogue” by cable companies.

The migration to 4G wireless is in full swing. Verizon Wireless has announced their decision to adopt Long Term Evolution (LTE) as their 4G standard. By selecting LTE, Verizon joins their corporate partner Vodaphone who also has announced they intend to pursue the same 4G strategy. Both Verizon and Vodaphone plan to start trialing LTE in 2008. AT&T has hinted they may pursue a LTE strategy as well. Sprint has selected WiMAX, branded as Xohm, for their 4G migration. LTE is being developed by the third generation partnership project (3GPP), a global wireless standards body. The move to 4G promises to bring a true broadband experience to the wireless lifestyle, far surpassing today’s current broadband wireless services experienced through technologies like EV-DO. In theory, LTE is thought to be able to offer 100 Mbps wirelessly, although when it’s brought to market, actual broadband speeds are expected to be significantly lower.

The move illustrates the commitment of carriers to embrace broadband wireless as the future of telecom. The competitive implications are numerous. When 4G comes into prime time, it will certainly pressure wireline broadband (DSL, Cable Modem, etc.) in much the same way wireless voice puts pressure on wireline telephony today. Many subscribers may choose to ditch wireline altogether, choosing 4G for both their broadband and voice needs. Wireline’s saving grace may be video, but that might even be in jeopardy in a true 4G world. Additionally, you have to wonder where cable fits in a 4G world. Cable is already significantly behind telecom in the context of wireless. Meanwhile, developments like this one appear to increase telecom’s lead. Unless cable concedes the wireless business to their telecom competitors, which seems unlikely, they will have to step up their wireless game. Quickly. In fact, I don’t see how cable can build this type of wireless strategy organically. I think acquisition has to be in the forefront of their wireless strategic plan. Otherwise, they will be in constant catch up mode. In today’s rapidly evolving telecom landscape, constantly playing catch up could prove deadly.

Embarq announced a holiday promotion that provides unlimited wireless calling for the month of December. In conjunction with the promotion, Embarq has launched a new interactive website, UnlimitedDecember.com which allows customers to create and send holiday greetings/messages. Embarq is marketing the promotion as “44,600 minutes at no extra charge.”

There are reports surfacing that the consortium of large MSOs that make up Pivot Wireless have begun strategizing their next move. That move probably does not involve Sprint, which recently announced they were halting Pivot deployments. This has to be considered a real blow to the likes of Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, and Advance/Newhouse, the Pivot consortium members. The AP is reporting that the consortium has assembled a group of wireless business strategists to map out their wireless future, and they may decide to go it alone.

This has to be considered a serious competitive fumble for cable. The Pivot consortium realized long ago that a wireless component is necessary to effectively battle their telco competitors. Pivot, if not the answer, was at least seen as stemming the tide until such time that a longer term solution was unveiled. Sprint was seen as a good partner – Sprint already provides the lion’s share of VoIP expertise for cable landline telephony. No one could have predicted the troubles Sprint now faces and their obvious distractions are impacting both the Pivot and Xohm projects. Every day that the cable industry misses in getting their wireless act together is a day that the telecom industry grows their wireless lead. Cable is not without options. They are sitting on a boat load of spectrum themselves, acquired in the last AWS spectrum auction. The upcoming 700 Mhz auction also offers a window of opportunity. Or they may decide to just go ahead and buy Sprint. Neither of those options can be done quickly and therefore continues to put the cable industry at a disadvantage. Look for the telecom industry to continue to seize on their wireless advantage.