Qwest is apparently quietly rolling out its 20 Mbps broadband service in select markets. BroadbandReports.com is reporting that the new broadband tier is being marketed on Qwest’s website, and also includes a somewhat slower 12 Mbps tier as well. The 20 Mbps broadband tier is priced at $105/month, or $130/month when bundled with a landline. The 12 Mbps tier is priced at $52/month, or $77/month when bundled with a landline.

The new Qwest broadband tiers are a part of Qwest’s $300 million FTTN network upgrade. It’s a far cry from the billions that their larger telco brethren are spending to become triple play capable. Qwest maintains that their partnership with DirecTV is the best triple play path to pursue. They intend to deliver these new broadband tiers to 1.5 million customers by 2010.

One of the interesting debates among telecom industry analysts is focused on who has the right long term strategy – Verizon or AT&T. Verizon is moving forward with its well publicized FiOS initiative which is a true FTTH architecture. AT&T has decided that taking fiber all the way to the home is not necessary, and they’ve selected a fiber to the node (FTTN) strategy for U-verse. Or have they? Light Reading reports that AT&T is also committing to a GPON based FTTH architecture for many “greenfield” developments. For the time being AT&T’s FTTN deployments will far outnumber their FTTH deployments, with FTTH lines numbering in the “hundreds of thousands” versus millions for FTTN. It begs the question though, what if AT&T finds that their FTTH deployments create better ARPU or compete more effectively with cable? Will they then be forced to roll it out beyond just greenfield developments? And if so, will the current FTTN strategy be a waste of time and money?

Cable competitors will have options to increase their capability and competitive prowess with technologies like DOCSIS 3.0 and tru2way. How well they execute on those opportunities will go a long way in determining which telecom competitive position makes the most sense – FTTH or FTTN. It appears as if AT&T may be hedging their bets somewhat, by deploying technologies like GPON along with their core FTTN architecture. Perhaps we will find that AT&T’s and Verizon’s strategies are more closely aligned than we first thought.

Qwest CEO Ed Mueller isn’t interested in gambling on IPTV. The going IPTV ante for a company of Qwest’s size is in the billions - a little too rich for Mueller’s blood. Rather than Qwest learning the video business on the fly and paying handsomely for it, Mueller prefers to partner with companies who know it best and have already invested those necessary billions. Mueller is already taking some heat for this decision, but I think it’s too early to judge this fiscally conservative move. Arguments can be made on both sides of this "should we launch IPTV" equation (I would argue that Qwest’s real long term concern is wireless, not IPTV - but that’s the subject of another post). Anyone who plays poker knows that a fold can either be the smartest or the dumbest move you can make. It all depends on how the subsequent cards fall.

Mueller argues that their partnership with DirecTV still affords them a competitive triple play offering. You can’t really argue with that. They’ve announced a FTTN initiative that will provide 20 Mbps to select markets. They’ll spend less than 1/10th of what AT&T is spending on U-verse, and less than 1/60th of what Verizon is spending on FiOS. Maybe Mueller will get the last laugh. He can still extract some margin from the DirecTV partnership and not risk substantial investments in an IPTV network. I’ve seen some financial analysts scratch their heads at most telcoTV business plans that have five to seven year payback periods, while DBS partnerships can extract positive cash flow on day one. Maybe these moves will put Qwest in a better financial position than their competitors and peers – a position they may be able to leverage for competitive advantage. Or maybe this strategy will handcuff Qwest and not allow them to leverage a true triple play experience. Which strategy puts a company in a better competitive shape? Hard to say. But thanks to Qwest, we’ll have a better barometer to measure telecom’s long term competitive health. Bet the bank on a facilities based telcoTV network, or go it safe (fiscally anyway) and let your video expert partners do the video heavy lifting for you. Who will be able to extract the most value and exploit their competitor’s weaknesses? Stay tuned.